2019 Fantasy Football Boom-or-Bust Team

Fantasy football features a wide array of owner types: Conservatives ("stick to the rankings"), rookie lovers ("zero-RB is the best draft strategy"), and risk-chasers ("cheat sheets are for losers"). Its the latter group that will enjoy this list the most, but the conservatives might actually get the most out of it, as they can turn it into a de facto "do-not-draft" list. We try to predict sleepers and busts every year Greedy Williams Jersey because of how important they are for draft strategy, but we all know that the hit rate on those is only so-so.
This is the 2019 boom-or-bust list. If you envision the perfect scenario, its po sible to picture these guys helping you hoist your fantasy football trophy at the end of a succe sful campaign. But far greater are the odds that they bust, at least failing to reach their expectations.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT:
The presence of players on this list isnt an indictment of their talent. Often, theyre so desired because of that talent. But for whatever particular reason, we feel theyre more likely to bust this year. We get into those reasons below. And a word to the wise: If you do a draft and end up with all these players on your roster, you must really like adrenaline.
LISTEN TO THE SN FANTASY "DO-NOT-DRAFT"PODCAST BELOW
2019Fantasy QB BustCam Newton, Panthers
I felt so scared. Those are the words Cam Newton said in a video on his Youtube channel about his 2018 right shoulder injury. Sure, Newton had surgery on the shoulder in the offseason. but how often do you hear a quarterback say such harrowing words about the arm that makes him so valuable?
If you want Newton on your team, itll cost you a QB1-level pick. Most years, there wouldnt be any reservations about him reaching that mark. His rushing usually gives him the nece sary boost for anything his pa sing lacks. But this is uncharted territory. If his shoulder doesnt heal as hoped, no reasonable amount of running can overcome a bum arm. And theres an alternate -- maybe even probable --scenario where Newton avoids running to try and keep his shoulder healthy.
Cam has a lot of name value among the starting QBs, but he carries the most risk. If the shoulder is healed, maybe you get a top-threequarterback ninth or 10th among pa sers, but if its not, he might have weeks where hes unstartable. Even worse, theres no great way to know what youre getting until he actually starts throwing a bunch of pa ses in real games. So, of course there are scenarios where Newton works out. But Im still scared.
QBs: | | |
2019Fantasy RB BustsDerrick Henry, Titans
Henrys Weeks 14 and 15 are probably very prominent in your mind. Maybe you played him in your fantasy playoffsor were lucky and had him in your lineup. More likely, you mi sed your fantasy playoffs because you drafted Henry in the third round and he did nothing all season. Either way, he rushed for 238 yards and four TDs and170 yards and two TDs, respectively, in those two weeks. It was exactly the kind of late-season burst that could turn a forgettable season into a memorable one. Thats the problem, though. Everyone remembers that. It makes it seem like Henry had an awesome season.
Aside from those two weeks, he averaged 3.9 yards per carry the rest of the campaign. Thats not a rate that makes him seem worthy of RB2 status. And its not like the Titans offensive line is doing him any favors, as it blocked for the fewest average yards before first contact in the NFL in 2018. Henry is frequently forced to make something out of nothing, and while hes big enough to fall forward and pick up a couple, that might be all he gets most of the time.
Obviously, theres potential here. The 408 yards acro s two weeks in fantasy playoff time make that abundantly clear, and the fact he's in a contract year has a lot of fantasy owners excited. Its just hard to know what you will get that for a full season of action behind a bad offensive line. We know he wont give any production through the airbecause thats Dion Lewis domain in Tenne see, so his value is already diminished in PPR leagues. Picking Ricardo Louis Jersey Henry could just amount to drafting a guy based on a big few weeks, the same way NBA teams overdraft players based on big NCAA Tournaments. It doesnt always work out.
Damien Williams, Chiefs
While were on the subject of drafting players based on big NCAA Tournaments, enter Williams. He only came on for the first time in his career even later last season, his fifth in the NFL. Its like a fifth-year senior who no one ever liked as an NBA prospect having a big game in the Sweet 16 and all of a sudden theyre a must-have. Williams showed few prior signs of being a consistently useful NFL player, hanging on in Miami for four years as an occasional pa s-catcher.
But youve got to give him credit: When he got his chance in Kansas City, he thrived, rushing for 5.1 yards per carry in limited action. He also caught 23 of the 24 balls thrown his way. He was even more impre sive in two playoff games, averaging 120 total yards and scoring four total touchdowns. And all reports indicate Williams will be the featured guy in KC this year despite the signing ofCarlos Hyde.
Williams is just such a relative unknown to be going ahead of Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman, among others. Sure, if he sticks in the high-powered Chiefs offense he could return his early-third round price. but would anyone be shocked if the journeyman who couldnt stick with the Dolphins eventually fell right out of the picture?
RBs: | | |
2019Fantasy Football WR BustsAdam Thielen, Vikings
Thielens placement on this team might not be totally fair. He should produce solid points for your fantasy team in 2019, but he might not live up to his WR1 label --and getting a lackluster second-round pickcan be a big blow to your chances of winning.
Heres the i sue: In the second half of 2018, Stefon Diggs received more targets than Thielen, 64-57, and thats with Diggs mi sing a game and Thielen playing all eight. You can look at that in a couple of ways. One, Diggs became the de facto No. 1 WR in Minnesota. Two, Thielen averaged an underwhelming 7.1 targets per game, not a rate that hell be able to convert into WR1 production. And three, as Kirk Cousins became more comfortable in Minnesota, he actually looked Thielens way le s than in Thielens big first half, po sibly because Thielen was seeing tighter coverage.
It feels so simple to plug Thielen in at the back of the top-10 receivers, where FantasyPros ADP has him right now. But what happens if Diggs keeps his grip on the targets all season? Thielens final eight games extrapolated over 16 amounts to 78 catches for 896 yards and six TDs. Thats nowhere near WR1 production.
Sammy Watkins, Chiefs
Watkins is being drafted as a borderline WR2. Maybe a bit of that has to do with the question marks surrounding Tyreek Hill that seem to have been at least temporarily answered now, but its always been more about hope than reality with Watkins. In the high-powered Chiefs offense a year ago, Watkins finished four games out of his 14 with three or fewer catches.
And while hes easy to think Sheldrick Redwine Jersey of as the No. 2 WR for Patrick Mahomes, hes really at best the third option because of the targets Travis Kelce soaks up. Theres really no personnel aspects that make Watkins look like a better player for this season. If he catches 50 pa ses for 600 or 700 yards, is he worth a place as your WR2?
Certainly theres boom here. Everyones wanted Watkins to be the man since his days in Buffalo. He just never has delivered, and especially at his price, theres not much reason to expect it now.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Even in the most terrible of offenses, No. 1 WRs have value in fantasy football. And for much of the offseason, its looked like Sutton would be that guy in Denver. But all of a sudden, Emmanuel Sanders recovery from an Achilles' injury is ahead of schedule. So, what do we make of Sutton?
Right now hes being drafted in FLEX territory, which is probably fine, but there really isnt room for more than one consistentlyproductive receiver in Denver. If youre forced to draft Sutton into your starting lineup, youd want to feel sure hes that guy. Even the boom for Sutton might look like his Week 16: Six catches for 65 yards. Thats not blowing anyone away. If Sanders is truly healthy or DaeSean Hamilton continues to emerge, Sutton could fall out of rosterable territory.
WRs: | | |
2019Fantasy Football TE BustVance McDonald, Steelers
People are putting a lot of faith into McDonald this season. Antonio Brown and Je se James arent in Pittsburgh, so a lot of expectation is that McDonald will get an overwhelming boost in targets. He might, which would make him a serious boom player as a back-end starting tight end, but when was the last time a Pittsburgh TE put up major points (Heath Miller in 2012?)? There's always someone else in Pittsburgh to splits time (and targets) with.
If McDonald looks like the player hes seemed to be for most of his career, when hes gained 13 yards per catch and reeled in 60 percent of his targets, he might underwhelm. I understand the need to take a flier somewhere at tight end this year. Its just a big puddle of mud after the top-tier players. But McDonald is going above proven players like Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph and Jordan Reed. At least Burton is more worthy of your starting spot, and theres always a chance McDonalds long-time mediocrity shows itself again in 2019.
TEs: | | |
2018 Fantasy Football Defense BustJaguars D/ST
The Jaguars defense simply wasnt good in 2018. Yeah, they were the top fantasy D/ST in 2017, and they were drafted like it last year only to ma sively disappoint. With leading tackler Telvin Smith out of action for 2019, theres no way Jacksonville gets back to that high perch. First-round pick Josh Allen will help, but it doesn't seem like there's quite enough talent to make Jacksonville a top-three D/ST. Starter-worthy?Sure. But theyre currently going well before the second-to-last round of 12-team drafts. Unle s you're drafting the Bears (who are also being drafted too high, by the way) or maybe the Rams, you shouldn't be a taking a D/ST-- especially one like the Jags -- that high.
D/ST: | | |
If you wanted to define a bust, it would involve not living up to expectations. The thing is, theres almost no way that Jacksonvilles D/ST lives up to top-three defense standards. Even with the flukine s that are defense rankings, theyve got to deal with Indianapolis and Houston twice, and Tenne see Olivier Vernon Jersey isnt even an easy divisional matchup. Whoever is picking the Jaguars as high as they are will be firmly disappointed.